There’s no denying that the ongoing ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2021 had its share of close matches, but the two semi-finals were something else. Both the games were so close that anyone could have won the match.
For example, England was very much into the match against New Zealand until Chris Jordan bowled that 17th over and likewise, Pakistan seemed to be going strong until Shaheen Afridi bowled that 19th over against Australia.
Such close encounters show that it’s not easy to predict the winner or the loser. It may not be easy, but everyone is asking: Who will win the T20 world cup 2021? Our team of experts at Fun88 thinks that if we take a deep dive into statistics, we will come out with revealing insights, which can help us predict the outcome of the T20 World Cup final, which is scheduled to be played on Sunday, November 14, 2021.
After spending hours crunching data to come out with the T20 world cup winner odds, we think that New Zealand has a clear edge over Australia, and it is very likely that the Kiwis have a better chance of emerging as the champion of the world cup. Based on our analysis, we think New Zealand has a 60% chance of winning the final while Australia has only 40%. But before we go any further, we’d like to talk a bit about our methodology.
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Crunching T20 World Cup data – The Fun88 way
It’s true that there are tons of statistics out there to consider for a cricket match. Therefore, we had to finalise the parameters, which are the most revealing about a team’s performance.
In an ODI or a test match, we consider the number of 50s and 100s to judge a batsman’s ability. Since T20 is a 20-over format, we have considered the number of 25s, 50s, and 100s scored by batsmen.
The ability to clear the boundary is one of the most crucial parameters in cricket, more so in the T20 format. It was eventually Jimmy Neeshan’s and Mathew Wade’s power-hitting which turned the course of the two semi-finals. Therefore, we have also considered the total number of 4’s and 6’s hit by various players.
For bowlers, we have considered their average economy rate because that tells us how many runs they have given per over. We have also taken into consideration their best economy rate because that tells us what they can do by performing at their peak level. Lastly, we have factored in the number of wickets they have taken.
New Zealand has the edge over Australia going by several parameters as shown by data
If we consider the parameters we’ve described above, we’ll realise that New Zealand has more depth in its batting than Australia. Moreover, it also has a bowling attack, which is more potent than Australia’s attack. Let’s get into details.
If you notice Table 1, New Zealand batters have scored 25 runs or more 13 times during the world cup, 50 runs or more 2 times during the world cup. Compared to that, Aussie batters have scored more than 25 runs only 9 times and 50 runs or more 3 times (Table 2). So, the Kiwis have scored more 25s than the Aussies. But the Aussies have scored one 50 more than the Kiwis.
Table 1: New Zealand batters so far in the six matches of the T20 World Cup
| New Zealand | |||||||
| Batting | Daryl Mitchell | Devon Conway | Glenn Phillips | Jimmy Neesham | Kane Williamson | Martin Guptill | Total |
| More Than 25 Runs in 6 Matches | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| More Than 50 Runs in 6 Matches | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| More Than 100 Runs | 0 | ||||||
| Total 4s in 6 Matches | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| Total 6s 6 Matches | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 | |
Table 2: Australian batters so far in the six matches of the T20 World Cup
| Australia | |||||||
| Batting | Aaron Finch | David Warner | Mitchell Marsh | Steve Smith | Matthew Wade | Marcus Stoinis | Total |
| More Than 25 Runs in 6 Matches | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| More Than 50 Runs in 6 Matches | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||||
| More Than 100 Runs | 0 | ||||||
| Total 4s in 6 Matches | 11 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 49 |
| Total 6s 6 Matches | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 22 | |
If we analyse further, we will notice that New Zealand’s batting is more balanced than Australian batting. Australia has scored nine 25s and three 50s, which means a total of 12 big scores. Of these 12 big scores, 3 were made by Aaron Finch and 3 were made by David Warner. In simple words, on six occasions, these two batsmen had to step up to take their team far. 6 out of 12 is 50%. Clearly, Australia is relying far too much on these two batters.
New Zealand, on the other hand, has scored thirteen 25s and two 50s in the world cup. Of these 15 big scores, four were made by Kane Williamson, which means on 26.7% of occasions, Williamson had to anchor the innings. Apart from that, all other batters have chipped in.
For example, Daryl Mitchell, Devon Conway, Glenn Phillips, and Jimmy Neesham have scored a score of 25 or more twice. Besides, Mitchell and Martin Guptill have scored one 50 each. That shows that the Kiwis have more balance and depth in their batting than the Aussies.
The Kiwis also have tighter bowling than the Aussies. Their main bowlers have given fewer runs on an average than the Australian bowlers. Table 3 shows the average economy of three New Zealand bowlers over six matches of the world cup. The average of their average economy rates stands at 6.52, which means they have given 6.52 runs an over.
Table 4 shows the average economy rate of three Australian bowlers. The average of their average economy rates stands at 7.34, which means they have given more runs per over than their New Zealand counterparts.
Let’s talk about another factor here. Table 2 above shows that Australian batters have scored 49 fours, which is considerably higher than 31 fours scored by New Zealand batters. But, as we discussed, the Kiwi bowlers have given lesser runs per over.
In the final match, if the Kiwi bowlers can bowl a tight line and make it difficult for the Australian batters to score fours, then they will gain the upper hand in the match. In terms of wickets taken, the performance of Australian and New Zealand bowlers is almost similar.
Table 3: New Zealand bowlers – Key statistics during the T20 World Cup
| New Zealand | |||
| Trent Boult | Ish Sodhi | Tim Southee | |
| Bowling | |||
| Best Econ Rate in a Match | 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.75 |
| Avg Econ of 6 Matches | 6.56 | 7.26 | 5.75 |
| Who Took More Than 5 Wickets | 11 | 9 | 8 |
Table 4: Australia bowlers – Key statistics during the T20 World Cup
| Australia | |||
| Mitchell Starc | Adam Zampa | Josh Hazlewood | |
| Bowling | |||
| Best Econ Rate in a Match | 5.25 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Avg Econ of 6 Matches | 8.35 | 5.97 | 7.71 |
| Who Took More Than 5 Wickets | 9 | 12 | 8 |
Whether we talk of batting or bowling, New Zealand is a more balanced and talented side than Australia. Therefore, the Kiwis have a 60% chance of winning the final compared to a 40% chance for the Aussies.
What our data had to say about the semifinal matches
Now that we know the outcome of both the semifinal matches and that they were very close, we thought it’d be wise to see what our data would have revealed about these matches if we had done this exercise before the matches.
Our data clearly shows that the New Zealand and England match was expected to be very close. Table 5 shows that English batters had scored 9 big scores (six 25s, two 50s, and one 100) till the Super 12 stage. However, New Zealand batters had scored 12 big scores (eleven 25s and one 50). So, New Zealand had a bit of an edge over England.
Table 5: England and New Zealand batting till the Super 12 stage
| Batting | England | New Zealand |
| More Than 25 Runs in 5 Matches | 6 | 11 |
| More Than 50 Runs in 5 Matches | 2 | 1 |
| More Than 100 Runs in 5 Matches | 1 | 0 |
| Total 4s in 5 Matches | 46 | 31 |
| Total 6s in 5 Matches | 27 | 20 |
In terms of bowling, the four English bowlers (Moeen Ali, Chris Jordan, Tymal Mills, and Adil Rashid) had an average economy rate of 6.43 runs an over compared to 6.23 runs an over the average economy rate of Trent Boult, Ish Sodhi, and Tim Southee during the five matches played in the Super 12 stage. So, there wasn’t much to choose from between these two sides as far as bowling is concerned. Their semi-final match ended up being really close, as the data has shown.
However, when it comes to the Pakistan vs Australia match, our data shows that Pakistan had batted much better than Australia in the five matches of Super 12. Table 6 shows that Pakistani batters had made 14 big scores during the 5 matches of Super 12 (seven 25s and seven 50s), but Australian batsmen had scored only 8 big scores (five 25s and three 50s).
Table 6: Pakistan and Australia batting till the Super 12 stage
| Batting | Australia | Pakistan |
| More Than 25 Runs in 5 Matches | 5 | 7 |
| More Than 50 Runs in 5 Matches | 3 | 7 |
| More Than 100 Runs in 5 Matches | 0 | 0 |
| Total 4s in 5 Matches | 39 | 56 |
| Total 6s in 5 Matches | 12 | 28 |
Even in the bowling department, the average economy rate of Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf stood at 6.75 runs an over, marginally better than 7 runs an over the average economy rate of Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, and Adam Zampa.
If the data shows that Pakistan was a better side than Australia, how come Pakistan lost the match? Well, that’s the game of cricket for you, full of uncertainties. Pakistan had performed much better than expectations in the Super 12 stage by winning all the matches and was at the top of the points table, while Australia had not performed that well. And if Wade had not hit Afridi for three 6s in that 19th over, maybe the result could have been in Pakistan’s favour.
In a nutshell, as a bettor, you should look at data, but always keep in mind that, in a T20 game, the next ball can change the entire course of a match. Also, always consider the pitch report and toss result while placing your bets.
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